Timing of global warming in IPCC AR4 AOGCM simulations

Projected changes in drought occurrence under future global warming from multi-model, multi-scenario, IPCC AR4 simulations

Recent and potential future increases in global temperatures are likely to be associated with impacts on the hydrologic cycle, including changes to precipitation and increases in extreme events such as droughts. We analyze changes in drought occurrence using soil moisture data for the SRES B1, A1B and A2 future climate scenarios relative to the PICNTRL pre-industrial control and 20C3M twentieth...

Global-mean precipitation and black carbon in AR4 simulations

[1] How much and why precipitation changes as the climate warms is uncertain, even for the global mean. In the 21st Century of the IPCC AR4 A1b forcing scenario, globalmean precipitation increase per degree warming varies among models by over a factor of three. Clear-sky atmospheric shortwave absorption change explains over half of the intermodel spread (r = 0.61) in precipitation increase. Rem...

Toward a Seasonally Ice-Covered Arctic Ocean: Scenarios from the IPCC AR4 Model Simulations

The sea ice simulations by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4) models for the climate of the twentieth century and for global warming scenarios have been synthesized. A large number of model simulations realistically captured the climatological annual mean, seasonal cycle, and temporal trends of sea ice area over the Northern Hemisphere during 1979–...

HAS THE IPCC EXAGGERATED ADVERSE IMPACT OF GLOBAL WARMING ON HUMAN SOCIETIES? by Madhav L Khandekar HAS THE IPCC EXAGGERATED ADVERSE IMPACT OF GLOBAL WARMING ON HUMAN SOCIETIES?

Indian Ocean SST, evaporation, and precipitation during the South Asian summer monsoon in IPCC-AR4 coupled simulations

The veracity of modeled air–sea interactions in the Indian Ocean during the South Asian summer monsoon is examined. Representative simulations of the twentieth century climate, produced by coupled general circulation models as part of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report, are the analysis targets along with observational data. The analysis shows the presence of...